Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf187…753d crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$62 (+3%) realized +$45 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$184
other 18% +$56
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +23.4% +11.7% 42% 42% -13.4%
≤30d 40 +23.4% +11.7% 42% 42% -13.4%
≤90d 40 +23.4% +11.7% 42% 42% -13.4%
all 40 +23.4% +11.7% 42% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 42% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 42% -21.7%
15% -8.8% 35% -29.3%
20% -17.7% 35% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$33 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 65¢ $80 $91 +$12 (+14%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? No 61¢ 78¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+28%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $209 −$183 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $111 +$72 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $136 +$52 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $161 +$17 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $109 +$56 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $83 +$27 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $155 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$15 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $16 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $209 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $173 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $152 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.96 · official $153.95 (match) · 90 history records