Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf188…4a83 sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$265 (-11%) realized −$213 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$681
7 days+$495
14 days+$495
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$339
other 28% −$70
world 2% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.5% -10.9% 39% 35% +15.8%
≤30d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 38% 35% +15.0%
≤90d 35 -17.8% -25.7% 31% 29% +6.0%
all 35 -17.8% -25.7% 31% 29% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 29% +6.0%
10% -32.8% 23% -4.1%
15% -39.3% 23% -13.4%
20% -45.2% 23% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$32 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage62d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kwon Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 27¢ 14¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Gabriel Diallo 62¢ 54¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 22 $71 +$75 +106%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $268 +$505 +188%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $685 −$70 -10%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $102 +$231 +226%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $39 +$89 +230%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $84 +$14 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $48 +$10 +22%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $16 −$2 -10%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $19 +$29 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $30 −$11 -37%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $123 −$121 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $4 +$4 +112%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $31 −$11 -35%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $17 −$6 -35%
ITF Samobor: Antonio Voljavec vs Matic Dimic Jun 17 $67 −$66 -98%
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp Jun 17 $39 −$36 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $16 −$15 -95%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play- May 31 $9 +$7 +82%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ASTRAL (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Playoff Apr 25 $30 −$29 -97%
Rome: Dalibor Svrcina vs Jacopo Vasami Apr 25 $90 −$73 -81%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $154 −$91 -59%
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Iva Jovic Apr 25 $31 +$79 +258%
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin Apr 24 $49 −$30 -60%
Abidjan: Sebastian Gima vs Niels Visker Apr 21 $6 −$6 -98%
GV CD San José vs. Club Aurora: O/U 1.5 Apr 21 $32 −$24 -74%
Savannah: Andres Andrade vs Oliver Crawford Apr 21 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Gabriel Diallo 62¢ $44 10m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 27¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo SELL Borna Gojo 88¢ $147 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo BUY Borna Gojo 42¢ $71 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $773 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 34¢ $98 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 34¢ $170 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $365 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $407 6h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 30¢ $102 12h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Washington Mystics 97¢ $128 12h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 27¢ $19 12h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 30¢ $12 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $81 12h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 33¢ $7 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $91 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $98 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $84 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $85 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $43 16h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL QUAZAR 99¢ $42 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 16h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Golden State Valkyries 40¢ $15 16h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Golden State Valkyries 43¢ $16 16h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL QUAZAR 20¢ $16 16h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 38¢ $48 17h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $48 18h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 39¢ $19 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 15¢ $19 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $30 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.13 · official $92.13 (match) · 82 history records