Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf189…8e47 politics 250 markets active 7h ago coverage 413d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 413d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30,344 (+3%) realized +$25,178 · open +$5,166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate81%188W / 45L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$3,789per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$43,937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$123
14 days+$787
30 days+$4,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$23,948
world 33% +$11,461
other 17% +$4,343
economics 12% +$889
tech 2% +$813
finance 1% +$232
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.6% -4.5% 100% 0% -3.5%
≤30d 36 +57.9% +42.9% 86% 44% -2.8%
≤90d 46 +49.7% +35.5% 85% 46% -3.1%
all 233 +33.3% +20.6% 81% 25% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.6% 25% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.1% 16% -14.9%
15% -1.4% 10% -23.1%
20% -11.1% 9% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$3,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$367 vs −$790 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$43,937
Realized+$25,178
Unrealized+$5,166
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses188 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)233 / 250
History coverage413d ⚠
Avg bet$3,789
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 77¢ 100¢ $9,495 $12,300 +$2,805 (+30%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 74¢ 90¢ $6,451 $7,858 +$1,406 (+22%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 87¢ 88¢ $4,711 $4,775 +$64 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 91¢ 93¢ $4,072 $4,175 +$103 (+3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 93¢ 95¢ $3,781 $3,860 +$79 (+2%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? No 88¢ 96¢ $2,812 $3,060 +$248 (+9%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? No 87¢ 94¢ $1,692 $1,827 +$135 (+8%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? No 88¢ 85¢ $1,365 $1,325 −$39 (-3%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June? No 76¢ 97¢ $847 $1,083 +$236 (+28%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $891 $947 +$57 (+6%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $806 $853 +$47 (+6%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 91¢ 89¢ $634 $623 −$11 (-2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $421 $454 +$33 (+8%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $246 $297 +$51 (+21%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $248 $268 +$20 (+8%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June? No 82¢ 97¢ $109 $130 +$20 (+19%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $81 $98 +$17 (+20%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 17 $1,687 +$116 +7%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 14 $148 +$6 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $1,384 +$119 +9%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $640 +$36 +6%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 09 $1,508 −$347 -23%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 09 $1,851 +$508 +28%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 07 $876 +$74 +8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $133 +$57 +43%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June? Jun 05 $824 +$224 +27%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 04 $363 −$6 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $19,300 +$230 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $557 +$43 +8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? May 30 $177 +$23 +13%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $1,588 +$251 +16%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $112 +$14 +12%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May? May 30 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May? May 30 $287 +$40 +14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 30 $1,922 +$188 +10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? May 30 $326 +$36 +11%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May? May 30 $368 +$55 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 30 $845 +$210 +25%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May? May 30 $516 +$133 +26%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 30 $719 +$28 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 30 $1,771 +$245 +14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 30 $2,099 +$69 +3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 30 $3,678 +$376 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 30 $3,798 +$133 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? May 30 $287 +$13 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? May 29 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 29 $414 +$83 +20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 28 $4,028 +$682 +17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 28 $1,195 +$340 +28%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 26 $151 +$71 +47%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May? May 26 $674 +$26 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $21,000 −$520 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? May 15 $987 +$331 +34%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 15 $539 −$529 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $22,210 +$1,290 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $890 +$20 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? May 06 $1,612 +$394 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $21,064 +$2,454 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $450 +$900 +200%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $3,600 +$800 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $27,104 +$1,710 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $2,945 +$588 +20%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $4 +$1 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $328 −$168 -51%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 07 $1,060 +$95 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 85¢ $355 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $1,215 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 82¢ $231 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 84¢ $442 9h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? SELL No 94¢ $142 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 81¢ $4 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 84¢ $14 12h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? SELL No 94¢ $470 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 81¢ $3 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 81¢ $128 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 81¢ $11 17h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 81¢ $4 17h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 81¢ $58 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 88¢ $88 21h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 88¢ $352 21h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 81¢ $594 43h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 81¢ $54 44h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 97¢ $204 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 83¢ $575 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 88¢ $391 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 79¢ $953 2d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $77 3d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL No 85¢ $425 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 89¢ $179 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 68¢ $34 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 68¢ $320 3d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 87¢ $199 3d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 87¢ $410 3d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 87¢ $1,131 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 30¢ $78 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,937.41 · official $43,935.19 (match) · 3500 history records