Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf18a…8b42 sports 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate67%178W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$24
14 days−$16
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$17
crypto 1% −$3
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.9% -10.3% 98% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 167 -6.1% -15.1% 74% 16% -10.0%
≤90d 267 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 28% -9.9%
all 267 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 28% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 28% -9.9%
10% -20.1% 25% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 21% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses178 / 89
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)267 / 270
History coverage50d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) Keys 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Panna Udvardy vs. Viktorija Golubic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Set Handicap: Udvardy (-1.5) vs Golubic (+1.5) Udvardy 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Viktorija Golubic vs. Zeynep Sonmez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Mushika (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Fearnley (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Ortenzi vs. Kravchenko: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Royan: Completed Match: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Panshina (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5) Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Ren (-1.5) vs Nugroho (+1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$1 +1%
Royan: Completed Match: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Fuente vs. Santos: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Riera vs. Lollia: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Nottingham Open: Completed Match: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Royan: Completed Match: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Nottingham 2: Completed Match: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $84 +$1 +1%
Erel vs. Tabata: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Completed Match: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Ann Li vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Daniel Galan vs. Zsombor Piros: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5) Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Kinoshita (-1.5) vs Hruncakova (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Blanch (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Tessa Brockmann vs. Alycia Parks: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Seidel (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Justo (-1.5) vs Ambrogi (+1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Kawa (-1.5) vs Kasintseva (+1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Cina (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) Jun 13 $22 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Walton (-1.5) vs Wendelken (+1.5) Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Raul Brancaccio vs. Roberto Carballes Baena: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Set Handicap: Snigur (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Raducanu (+1.5) Jun 12 $41 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Tomljanovic (+1.5) Jun 12 $39 +$1 +4%
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Jun 12 $44 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Pedro Martinez vs. Felix Balshaw: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Balshaw (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5) Jun 11 $34 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Duckworth (+1.5) Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Galan (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5) Jun 11 $21 $0 +1%
Panna Udvardy vs. Daria Snigur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) BUY Keys 99¢ $30 16m
Viktorija Golubic vs. Zeynep Sonmez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $30 1h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) SELL Tien 100¢ $1 22h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Tien 99¢ $1 23h
Set Handicap: Fearnley (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 99¢ $26 23h
Ortenzi vs. Kravchenko: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 23h
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 99¢ $50 23h
Ortenzi vs. Kravchenko: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $79 24h
Royan: Completed Match: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel BUY Yes 99¢ $50 25h
Set Handicap: Panshina (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5) SELL Li 100¢ $85 29h
Set Handicap: Mushika (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) BUY Lin 99¢ $55 32h
Set Handicap: Panshina (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5) BUY Li 99¢ $84 32h
Set Handicap: Ren (-1.5) vs Nugroho (+1.5) BUY Nugroho 99¢ $61 34h
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Yes 99¢ $59 44h
Fuente vs. Santos: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $18 44h
Riera vs. Lollia: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 44h
Royan: Completed Match: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Yes 99¢ $50 44h
Nottingham Open: Completed Match: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Yes 100¢ $60 44h
Riera vs. Lollia: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $59 44h
Nottingham Open: Completed Match: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Yes 99¢ $59 45h
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) SELL Kenin 100¢ $50 45h
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) BUY Kenin 99¢ $50 46h
Royan: Completed Match: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Yes 99¢ $79 2d
Nottingham 2: Completed Match: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Yes 99¢ $84 2d
Halle Open: Completed Match: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Yes 99¢ $79 2d
Erel vs. Tabata: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $79 2d
Ann Li vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $110 2d
Ann Li vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $30 2d
Ann Li vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $30 2d
Ann Li vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.28 · official $30.28 (match) · 577 history records