Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F1 0xf18a…8516 sports 893 markets active 0h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$332 (-1%) realized −$276 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%389W / 502L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$544
14 days+$544
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$872
crypto 15% −$110
other 5% +$420
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +25.9% +13.9% 52% 48% +30.7%
≤30d 51 -1.5% -10.8% 43% 41% -20.1%
≤90d 163 -11.5% -19.9% 44% 39% -7.1%
all 891 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 38% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 38% -11.3%
10% -19.2% 32% -19.8%
15% -27.0% 29% -27.6%
20% -34.2% 27% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses389 / 502
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions2
Markets (closed)891 / 893
History coverage579d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 42¢ 34¢ $154 $128 −$26 (-17%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 −$30 -82%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $62 +$7 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 +$13 +14%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$12 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $65 +$26 +40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $61 +$40 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $64 +$31 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $83 +$19 +22%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$34 +328%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +276%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $63 +$21 +33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 +$4 +5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $62 +$7 +11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$8 +188%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$44 +711%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 +$11 +365%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $399 +$419 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $99 −$99 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang Jun 03 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC end in a draw? May 31 $300 −$160 -53%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Rwanda May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $299 −$298 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $40 +$9 +22%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $2 +$2 +105%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li May 21 $45 +$16 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 20 $90 +$11 +12%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $45 +$55 +122%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 42¢ $157 8m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 14m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 21¢ $31 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $67 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $23 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $89 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $61 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 27h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $42 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 46h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 11¢ $5 47h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $91 47h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $60 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 0¢ $0 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $80 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.88 · official $127.92 (match) · 2088 history records