trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 31% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 31% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 26 | -7.1% | -15.9% | 42% | 4% | -10.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.9% | 4% | -10.8% |
| 10% | -24.0% | 4% | -19.4% |
| 15% | -31.3% | 0% | -27.2% |
| 20% | -38.1% | 0% | -34.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 54¢ | $26 | $27 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 23 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $62 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 14 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -18% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $89 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $30 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $29 | +$2 | +8% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 09 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 08 | $30 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 26 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs | Apr 20 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Jaguars draft Travis Hunter in 2025? | Apr 20 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 | Apr 19 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 20 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 | Mar 12 | $8 | +$2 | +32% |
| Will "Never Too Late" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 03 | $9 | −$7 | -78% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or below on March 4? | Mar 03 | $1 | −$1 | -92% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4? | Mar 03 | $10 | −$2 | -19% |
| Sacramento State vs. Portland State | Mar 03 | $8 | $0 | -4% |