Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf18b…51b9 sports 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,236 (+13%) realized +$4,246 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%94W / 64L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$451
14 days+$451
30 days+$802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$3,250
sports 34% +$855
world 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤30d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 62% +11.1%
≤90d 78 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 51% -1.2%
all 158 +5.4% -4.6% 59% 58% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 58% +1.9%
10% -13.8% 53% -7.9%
15% -22.1% 44% -16.8%
20% -29.7% 35% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$88 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$4,246
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses94 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage215d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 68¢ 64¢ $198 $188 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $1,747 +$451 +26%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $44 −$43 -98%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $101 +$93 +91%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $37 −$37 -99%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 05 $42 +$46 +110%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1,400 +$291 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 +$42 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $405 +$129 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $1,008 +$394 +39%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $100 +$73 +73%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $23 +$36 +152%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $777 +$122 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $105 +$48 +46%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $26 +$55 +216%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos May 13 $74 −$73 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek May 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina May 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $70 +$42 +60%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 08 $12 +$14 +119%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $700 +$72 +10%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 06 $14 −$14 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $617 +$97 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zeynep Sonmez vs Jennifer Ruggeri May 05 $33 −$32 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig May 04 $16 +$17 +105%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $23 −$23 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $499 +$161 +32%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Blockx (+1.5) May 01 $107 −$105 -98%
Petkim Spor vs. Bahcesehir Koleji May 01 $101 −$92 -91%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $51 −$51 -99%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 30 $29 +$21 +73%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Apr 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $32 +$23 +70%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) Apr 29 $83 +$50 +60%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 28 $100 −$17 -17%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $49 −$12 -25%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $61 −$36 -58%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 27 $66 +$46 +70%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 27 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $50 +$52 +103%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 26 $5 +$13 +275%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez Apr 26 $39 +$50 +127%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $60 −$32 -53%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $48 +$28 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $200 1h
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,747 16d
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji BUY Bahcesehir Koleji 29¢ $44 18d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas BUY Besiktas 52¢ $101 20d
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Real Madrid 72¢ $37 22d
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce BUY Anadolu Efes 47¢ $42 23d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 82¢ $1,400 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 24¢ $41 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 70¢ $101 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 78¢ $534 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 58¢ $405 30d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 40d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 71¢ $698 40d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 72¢ $310 40d
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 42d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 57¢ $100 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $899 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Jannik Sinner 86¢ $777 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 26¢ $26 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 66¢ $49 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 70¢ $55 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 31¢ $26 45d
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 43¢ $74 46d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek BUY Jessica Pegula 16¢ $26 46d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala $11 49d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $70 50d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 45¢ $17 50d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 45¢ $12 51d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 88¢ $772 53d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $700 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.81 · official $187.81 (match) · 368 history records