Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf18c…0350 other 509 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-1%) realized −$145 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%154W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$578
7 days−$578
14 days+$45
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$508
sports 33% −$146
crypto 12% +$208
world 2% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -85.9% -87.2% 0% 0% -95.2%
≤30d 63 -1.0% -10.4% 29% 29% -21.3%
≤90d 307 -8.4% -17.1% 29% 29% -15.9%
all 508 -2.7% -12.0% 30% 28% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 28% -13.2%
10% -20.4% 27% -21.5%
15% -28.1% 26% -29.1%
20% -35.2% 26% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$25 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses154 / 354
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)508 / 509
History coverage242d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 37¢ 36¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$13 -29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $504 −$504 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $16 +$36 +223%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $82 +$111 +136%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$167 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$174 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $48 +$126 +262%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $26 +$285 +1115%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $88 −$88 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-05-25? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $13 +$29 +221%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $88 +$126 +144%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $20 +$19 +93%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $20 +$20 +97%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $64 +$78 +122%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? Jun 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) Jun 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27? Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $31 +$52 +165%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Platense end in a draw? May 28 $25 −$24 -94%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $31 −$18 -58%
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $71 +$84 +119%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $25 +$33 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $46 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 33¢ $32 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $46 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $49 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $52 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $16 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $300 7d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 47¢ $41 7d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 49¢ $30 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 11¢ $34 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $21 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $61 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $102 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $51 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $152 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $48 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 9d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 10¢ $10 10d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $25 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $310 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 8¢ $26 10d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Iceland 47¢ $51 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 11d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $102 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.39 · official $44.39 (match) · 1202 history records