Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf18d…3ec0 weather 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$330 (-2%) realized −$347 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate72%53W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$22
14 days−$14
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$89
crypto 42% −$244
other 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 39 -5.4% -14.4% 90% 5% -11.4%
≤90d 39 -5.4% -14.4% 90% 5% -11.4%
all 74 -13.4% -21.6% 72% 11% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 11% -12.8%
10% -29.1% 1% -21.1%
15% -36.0% 0% -28.7%
20% -42.2% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1,606
Realized−$347
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses53 / 21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)74 / 79
History coverage130d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $981 $998 +$17 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 28 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 24 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 24 $175 +$6 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? Jun 24 $779 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 24 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23? Jun 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? Jun 22 $353 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 22 $195 +$5 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? Jun 22 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $91 −$62 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $94 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $496 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $75 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $349 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $140 −$134 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $239 +$20 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $207 +$27 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3AM ET Mar 09 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4AM ET Mar 09 $82 −$39 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6AM ET Mar 08 $215 +$5 +2%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7AM ET Mar 05 $700 −$38 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Mar 05 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11AM ET Mar 05 $178 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7AM ET Mar 01 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7AM ET Mar 01 $143 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $296 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $255 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $320 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $337 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $319 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $109 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $133 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $250 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $219 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $497 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $483 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $130 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $89 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,605.74 · official $1,605.35 (match) · 1049 history records