Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf18f…7f15 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$161
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$40
sports 8% +$20
crypto 3% −$6
world 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +40.3% +26.9% 80% 80% +10.7%
≤30d 36 +3.6% -6.3% 58% 58% -7.0%
≤90d 36 +3.6% -6.3% 58% 58% -7.0%
all 36 +3.6% -6.3% 58% 58% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 58% -7.0%
10% -15.3% 58% -15.9%
15% -23.5% 58% -24.1%
20% -31.0% 50% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage9d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$35 -69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$21 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $5 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $5 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.80 · official $186.80 (match) · 65 history records