Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf190…a668 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+9%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% $0
other 33% +$9
sports 26% +$7
politics 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 52% -5.5%
≤30d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 52% -5.5%
≤90d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 52% -5.5%
all 25 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 52% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 52% -5.5%
10% -18.8% 40% -14.6%
15% -26.6% 40% -22.8%
20% -33.8% 32% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Aoran Wang Jun 19 $37 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$13 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the Jun 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Aoran Wang BUY Matthew Dellavedova 83¢ $37 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 42h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 42h
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the SELL Yes 30¢ $5 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.79 · official $29.79 (match) · 49 history records