Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf191…8b53 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,429 (+4%) realized +$4,303 · open +$126
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%34W / 14L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$2,527per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$2,416
other 8% +$288
sports 6% +$469
politics 5% +$1,506
world 1% −$144
finance 0% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -11.4% -19.8% 67% 67% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -11.4% -19.8% 67% 67% -10.0%
all 48 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 33% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 33% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 21% -15.2%
15% -28.5% 17% -23.4%
20% -35.5% 10% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$274 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$624
Realized+$4,303
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses34 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage594d
Avg bet$2,527
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 61¢ 76¢ $497 $624 +$126 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $402 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $728 +$177 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $514 +$214 +42%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $430 +$84 +20%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Feb 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play Feb 21 $236 +$45 +19%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 05 $688 −$102 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 01 $504 +$232 +46%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 28 $502 +$62 +12%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? Jun 16 $4,163 +$29 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jun 09 $4,104 +$51 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? May 05 $14,711 +$194 +1%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04? May 05 $1,753 +$92 +5%
Will Brighton vs. Newcastle end in a draw? May 04 $3,500 +$186 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $5,916 +$14 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $4,311 −$1,749 -41%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? Apr 28 $8,564 +$100 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 28 $3,200 +$421 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25? Apr 25 $5,840 +$203 +4%
Bitcoin above $85,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $11,117 +$322 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $5,602 +$65 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $5,192 +$261 +5%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-21? Apr 22 $5,087 +$105 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $5,082 +$5 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21? Apr 21 $5,000 +$81 +2%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $5,094 +$184 +4%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Apr 01 $5,050 +$1,367 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 30 $993 +$19 +2%
Nuggets vs. Magic Jan 20 $1,030 +$397 +38%
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Jan 19 $332 −$332 -100%
Prochazka vs. Hill Jan 19 $140 +$140 +100%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 18 $21 −$12 -57%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 17 $966 −$309 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Dec 31 $3,788 +$560 +15%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 22 $498 +$342 +69%
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 18 $2,383 −$82 -3%
Israel military action against Iraq before December? Dec 01 $363 +$16 +4%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Nov 17 $419 −$160 -38%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $513 +$313 +61%
Will Poland beat Portugal? Nov 16 $345 +$36 +10%
Will the match between Portugal and Poland end in a draw? Nov 15 $29 −$25 -86%
Will Portugal beat Poland? Nov 15 $152 −$37 -24%
Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 15 $100 +$50 +51%
Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election Nov 15 $415 +$55 +13%
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet? Nov 12 $586 −$206 -35%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $2,522 +$1,889 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $502 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 8d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 67¢ $166 8d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $728 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $514 9d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL Team Liquid 71¢ $99 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Team Liquid 54¢ $50 115d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Team Liquid 83¢ $100 115d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Team Liquid 82¢ $281 115d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play BUY Vitality 84¢ $236 121d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $586 228d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $102 230d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 230d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $36 230d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $550 230d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $150 230d
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 239d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? BUY No 68¢ $504 241d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $688 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $233 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $398 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $354 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $392 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $602 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $496 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $991 370d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 377d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,449 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.89 · official $623.89 (match) · 313 history records