Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf192…6ee2
world · 96 markets active 2h ago
7.0score
+$17,489 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,340 · open +$1,119
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,396
Realized+$15,340
Unrealized+$1,119
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses53 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)91 / 96
History coverage454d
Avg bet$856
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 5 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$711
7 days+$1,052
14 days+$10
30 days+$792
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $4,584 $5,180 +$596 (+13%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $1,500 $1,524 +$24 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $1,290 $1,492 +$202 (+16%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 81¢ $610 $815 +$205 (+34%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $292 $385 +$92 (+32%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $735 $0 −$735 (-100%)
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $5,752 +$1,663 +29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $1,048 −$627 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $2,321 +$201 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5,635 −$445 -8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $321 −$81 -25%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $56 −$7 -12%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 07 $529 +$347 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1,571 −$1,398 -89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $838 +$39 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $2,550 +$375 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,078 −$58 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $901 +$149 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2,073 +$493 +24%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 23 $591 +$16 +3%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 18 $202 +$42 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $325 +$82 +25%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $1,662 +$256 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $280 +$58 +21%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $512 +$180 +35%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 30 $41 −$2 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $1,912 +$1,029 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $1,617 −$1,192 -74%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $1,194 −$15 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $1,414 −$856 -61%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 18 $690 −$133 -19%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 18 $679 +$88 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $199 −$15 -8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 17 $454 −$195 -43%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 16 $98 −$86 -88%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $619 −$54 -9%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $316 +$17 +5%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 08 $14 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $218 +$3,287 +1505%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $230 +$40 +17%
Will USD/JPY hit 160 (High) in 2026? Apr 04 $43 −$43 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 04 $90 −$90 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $868 +$19 +2%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $4,835 +$331 +7%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2,024 −$15 -1%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meet Mar 19 $111 +$42 +38%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $372 +$28 +8%
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 16 $79 −$40 -51%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 16 $198 +$46 +24%
Iran strike on US military by February 28? Mar 01 $62 +$14 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 67% +$3,812
politics 16% +$3,716
economics 14% +$5,409
other 3% +$3,514
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $76 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $22 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,500 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $436 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $943 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $168 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $174 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $139 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,986 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 74¢ $148 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 62¢ $124 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,051 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $166 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $152 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $172 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $182 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 24¢ $72 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 23¢ $11 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 22¢ $244 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 23¢ $2 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 23¢ $183 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $88 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 25¢ $1 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 25¢ $13 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 23¢ $14 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 23¢ $11 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $442 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $937 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 25% -3.5%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 41% -6.7%
≤90d 48 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 31% -2.6%
all 91 +23.1% +11.4% 58% 42% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 42% +11.1%
10% +0.7% 29% +0.4%
15% -9.0% 18% -9.3%
20% -17.9% 14% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,395.94 · official $9,365.03 (match) · 758 history records