Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf19a…95ed crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$112 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%33W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 33 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤90d 33 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.4%
all 33 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 0% -5.4%
10% -14.1% 0% -14.4%
15% -22.4% 0% -22.7%
20% -30.0% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses33 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 0¢ 76¢ $0 $86 +$86 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $63 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $86 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $115 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $54 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $39 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $90 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $78 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $78 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $128 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $143 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $113 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $199 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $181 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $116 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $121 +$10 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $110 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $77 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $86 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $54 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $39 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $78 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $27 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $81 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.75 · official $65.30 · 82 history records