Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf19a…63a7 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-14%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$77
world 16% −$102
other 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 33% -25.0%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 33% -25.0%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 33% -25.0%
all 11 -17.8% -25.7% 27% 27% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 27% -37.2%
10% -32.8% 27% -43.2%
15% -39.3% 27% -48.7%
20% -45.2% 18% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$55 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage94d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $76 −$30 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$69 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $55 +$160 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$19 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records