Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf19d…4c8e
weather · 803 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$713
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses707 / 36
Open positions60
Markets (closed)743 / 803
History coverage81d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 60 History 743 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 92¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 96¢ 95¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 96¢ 95¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 96¢ 94¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? No 98¢ 95¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 96¢ 89¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? No 98¢ 96¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 96¢ 90¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 −$3 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $8 35m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $8 47m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 61¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $8 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 360 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 741 -0.1% -9.7% 95% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 743 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 0% -9.6%
all 743 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.58 · official $712.58 (match) · 1624 history records