Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf1a0…7d1a
crypto · 127 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$65 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses66 / 60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 126 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days−$24
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 29? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 30? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 28? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 31? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 30? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C or higher on May 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$8 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 55% −$92
crypto 45% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +6.9% -3.3% 57% 55% +2.4%
≤30d 126 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 51% -19.5%
≤90d 126 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 51% -19.5%
all 126 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 51% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 51% -19.5%
10% -16.5% 48% -27.2%
15% -24.6% 45% -34.2%
20% -32.0% 43% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.77 · official $3.77 (match) · 225 history records