Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf1a3…0c69 sports 1065 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 211d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,235 (-11%) realized −$17,217 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate71%746W / 311L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$20
14 days−$1
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$19,805
other 0% −$27
crypto 0% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 49% -10.2%
≤30d 206 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 51% -11.3%
≤90d 728 -17.2% -25.1% 61% 37% -37.6%
all 1057 -7.8% -16.6% 71% 35% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 35% -21.2%
10% -24.5% 22% -28.7%
15% -31.8% 14% -35.6%
20% -38.5% 9% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$100 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$17,217
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses746 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1057 / 1065
History coverage212d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1057 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 62¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 +$6 +20%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +596%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $19 +$5 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $5 +$11 +209%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$6 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $18 +$2 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $18 +$4 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $38 11m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 83¢ $2 1h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL BetBoom Team 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 83¢ $29 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 85¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 38¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 67¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.65 · official $78.65 (match) · 3500 history records