Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1a4…89af other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$44
14 days−$50
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$34
politics 4% +$1
tech 2% +$4
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 14% -13.1%
≤30d 29 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 17% -12.2%
≤90d 29 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 17% -12.2%
all 29 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 17% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 17% -12.2%
10% -19.0% 14% -20.6%
15% -26.8% 10% -28.3%
20% -34.0% 10% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage24d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 67¢ 89¢ $43 $58 +$14 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $67 −$23 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $72 −$4 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $53 −$9 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$27 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $181 −$72 -40%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $183 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $149 +$9 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $81 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $104 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $119 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $52 +$26 +50%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 06 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $14 +$4 +28%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 01 $75 −$13 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +5%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? May 30 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 29 $69 +$6 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23? May 23 $4 $0 +7%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 23 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $67 12h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $67 12h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $72 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $41 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $53 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $53 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $57 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $56 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $18 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $106 4d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $57 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $23 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $36 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 4d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.72 · official $57.72 (match) · 103 history records