Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf1a5…799e
sports · 12 markets active 6h ago
3.0score
+$5 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +388%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$4 +388%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$5
other 29% +$11
crypto 11% $0
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $2 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 20h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 30h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $3 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $5 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +33.1% +20.4% 40% 40% +9.2%
≤30d 10 +33.1% +20.4% 40% 40% +9.2%
≤90d 10 +33.1% +20.4% 40% 40% +9.2%
all 10 +33.1% +20.4% 40% 40% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.4% 40% +9.2%
10% +8.9% 30% -1.3%
15% -1.6% 30% -10.8%
20% -11.3% 30% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.98 · official $4.98 (match) · 17 history records