Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf1a5…132b crypto 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$416 (+8%) realized +$414 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%173W / 164L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$290
14 days+$304
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$81
weather 37% +$315
world 6% +$14
other 4% −$54
sports 2% −$9
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% +$3
politics 1% +$8
economics 1% −$20
culture 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +26.1% +14.1% 48% 48% +13.0%
≤30d 76 +16.8% +5.6% 47% 47% +7.5%
≤90d 148 +4.9% -5.1% 47% 45% +4.1%
all 337 +5.4% -4.6% 51% 51% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 51% -3.0%
10% -13.7% 48% -12.2%
15% -22.1% 45% -20.7%
20% -29.7% 40% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$414
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses173 / 164
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)337 / 346
History coverage167d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 63¢ 73¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $31 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $51 +$71 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$30 +145%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$13 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $21 +$21 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 +$80 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 +$23 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 +$30 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $41 +$102 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$19 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$7 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $21 +$24 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $21 +$35 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$6 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $52 +$75 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$17 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 +$74 +144%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$31 +614%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +235%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$55 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$7 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 37¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.12 · official $182.49 (match) · 771 history records