Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf1a9…6aa6 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+52%) realized +$64 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$33
politics 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +38.5% +25.3% 44% 22% +21.0%
≤30d 9 +38.5% +25.3% 44% 22% +21.0%
≤90d 9 +38.5% +25.3% 44% 22% +21.0%
all 9 +38.5% +25.3% 44% 22% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 22% +21.0%
10% +13.4% 22% +9.4%
15% +2.4% 22% -1.2%
20% -7.6% 22% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$27 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$52 +489%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.09 · official $19.09 (match) · 24 history records