Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1aa…9359 sports 604 markets active 17h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$534 (-1%) realized −$534 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%326W / 278L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day83.2pace
Fees−$751est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$435
14 days−$1,588
30 days−$2,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$869
crypto 15% −$1,628
other 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +105.0% +85.4% 51% 45% -12.8%
≤30d 590 +20.7% +9.2% 54% 39% -12.2%
≤90d 604 +19.9% +8.5% 54% 39% -12.6%
all 604 +19.9% +8.5% 54% 39% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.5% 39% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.9% 28% -21.0%
15% -11.4% 20% -28.6%
20% -20.1% 16% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$69 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$534
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses326 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$751
Open positions0
Markets (closed)604 / 604
History coverage31d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day83.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 604 Trades
no open positions (242 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$9 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$20 -45%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 16 $477 −$85 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $34 −$31 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $90 −$34 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $107 +$97 +91%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $313 −$310 -99%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 11 $242 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$13 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$7 -29%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $201 +$87 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$10 +105%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $159 −$111 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $220 −$216 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $99 −$90 -91%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $170 −$29 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $120 +$80 +67%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Nada Fouad Jun 11 $90 +$42 +46%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $212 +$90 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$46 -99%
ITF Wuning: Ya Yi Yang vs Anchisa Chanta Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$5 +32%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 11 $291 −$58 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$30 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +41%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 11 $230 +$164 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama Jun 11 $300 +$77 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 61¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $22 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Nick Kyrgios 6¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 80¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2747 history records