Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1aa…480c weather 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-7%) realized −$148 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate88%115W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$32
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$149
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -2.3% -11.6% 92% 6% -11.6%
≤30d 77 -4.2% -13.3% 91% 4% -13.4%
≤90d 131 -7.0% -15.8% 88% 8% -15.9%
all 131 -7.0% -15.8% 88% 8% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 8% -15.9%
10% -23.9% 0% -24.0%
15% -31.2% 0% -31.3%
20% -38.0% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses115 / 16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)131 / 139
History coverage67d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? No 92¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? No 89¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? No 86¢ 86¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? No 93¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16? No 93¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 93¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $9 45h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.63 · official $86.63 (match) · 294 history records