Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf1ad…6979
other · 70 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
−$1,093 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$963 · open −$130
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$963
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage2d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1445.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 2 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$339
7 days−$963
14 days−$963
30 days−$963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $5 +$31 +611%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 +$3 +24%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7 +$91 +1241%
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $11 +$63 +553%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 11 $3 +$54 +1764%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $244 −$20 -8%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 11 $6 +$400 +6455%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $6 +$18 +321%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $27 +$96 +354%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $100 +$420 +418%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $228 −$12 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $399 −$2 -1%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -7%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 11 $2 +$20 +960%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 11 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 11 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $230 +$70 +31%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $284 −$9 -3%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $148 +$27 +19%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $309 −$163 -53%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8 +$131 +1594%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $237 +$35 +15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $278 −$11 -4%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $22 +$18 +81%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $135 +$11 +8%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 +$57 +4032%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 11 $0 $0 -4%
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $724 −$32 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $307 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $60 +$10 +16%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $304 −$304 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $306 −$306 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $304 −$304 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $303 −$303 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $304 −$304 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $85 +$48 +57%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $304 +$196 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $304 +$284 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $304 −$304 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $304 +$273 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$2,305
other 30% +$1,224
crypto 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $83 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $800 26h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 17¢ $1 26h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 69¢ $3 26h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 56¢ $36 26h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $112 26h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 6¢ $5 26h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 26h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $19 26h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL No 54¢ $5 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $291 26h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 18¢ $5 26h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 30¢ $1 26h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $246 26h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 26h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $99 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 78¢ $315 26h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr SELL No 46¢ $4 26h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $168 26h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $75 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 34¢ $57 26h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $487 26h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 39¢ $224 26h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 26h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $9 26h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $57 26h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 63¢ $406 26h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $11 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+130.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +155.1% +130.8% 43% 40% -21.2%
≤30d 70 +155.1% +130.8% 43% 40% -21.2%
≤90d 70 +155.1% +130.8% 43% 40% -21.2%
all 70 +155.1% +130.8% 43% 40% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1445.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +130.8% 40% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here +108.7% 36% -28.7%
15% +88.6% 33% -35.6%
20% +70.1% 33% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.47 (match) · 3500 history records