Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

F1 0xf1b3…5b4f other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$335 (+15%) realized +$339 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$438per market

Trades / day7.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+15.2%	+4.2%	50%	50%	-14.7%
≤30d	4	+15.2%	+4.2%	50%	50%	-14.7%
≤90d	4	+15.2%	+4.2%	50%	50%	-14.7%
all	4	+15.2%	+4.2%	50%	50%	-14.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.2%	50%	-14.7%
10%	-5.8%	50%	-22.9%
15%	-14.9%	50%	-30.3%
20%	-23.2%	50%	-37.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$343 vs −$402 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$96

Realized+$339

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$438

Trades / day7.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ecuador leading at halftime?	Jun 21	$416	−$313	-75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$894	−$492	-55%
Morocco leading at halftime?	Jun 19	$524	+$396	+76%
United States leading at halftime?	Jun 19	$251	+$290	+115%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$106	1h
Ecuador leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	18¢	$103	1h
Ecuador leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	66¢	$416	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	33¢	$402	4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$894	6h
Morocco leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	82¢	$920	28h
Morocco leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	43¢	$524	28h
United States leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$541	30h
United States leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	43¢	$251	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.83 · official $95.83 (match) · 9 history records