Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1b9…fe89 weather 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate60%73W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$21
other 10% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 119 -38.5% -44.4% 61% 0% -10.3%
all 121 -38.6% -44.5% 60% 1% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 1% -11.1%
10% -49.8% 0% -19.6%
15% -54.6% 0% -27.4%
20% -59.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses73 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 90¢ 60¢ $14 $9 −$4 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? Apr 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 19? Apr 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on April 19? Apr 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 19? Apr 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on Apri Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on April 18 Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or below on April Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 17 Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 16 Apr 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15? Apr 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 15? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 15? Apr 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on Apri Apr 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 14? Apr 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C or higher on April 1 Apr 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 14? Apr 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 13 Apr 15 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on April 12? Apr 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13? Apr 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? Apr 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 38°C or higher on April 13? Apr 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 11 Apr 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 12? Apr 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 12? Apr 13 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $80 20d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 59d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 BUY No 98¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.96 (match) · 304 history records