Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

F1 0xf1ba…6fda sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$25 (-8%) realized +$20 · open −$45

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%10W / 4L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+7.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+19.2%	+7.9%	71%	71%	+12.1%
≤30d	14	+19.2%	+7.9%	71%	71%	+12.1%
≤90d	14	+19.2%	+7.9%	71%	71%	+12.1%
all	14	+19.2%	+7.9%	71%	71%	+12.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.9%	71%	+12.1%
10%	-2.5%	64%	+1.3%
15%	-11.9%	50%	-8.5%
20%	-20.5%	29%	-17.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 38% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late +53% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$45

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses10 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 20

History coverage4d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$85	$45	−$40 (-48%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	58¢	52¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-9%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5	Over	49¢	46¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers	Jun 28	$30	+$14	+46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina to score first vs. Jordan?	Jun 28	$20	+$9	+46%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants	Jun 27	$10	+$4	+44%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers	Jun 27	$10	+$8	+76%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$10	+$2	+24%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$5	+$12	+233%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$10	+$3	+27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$5	+$4	+83%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins	Jun 25	$12	+$9	+70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$2	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$20	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers	BUY Hanwha Eagles	68¢	$30	11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina to score first vs. Jordan?	BUY	68¢	$20	17h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND DR Congo v	BUY	5¢	$5	27h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND England to score first vs. Panama?	BUY	42¢	$10	36h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers	BUY Hanwha Eagles	56¢	$10	38h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants	BUY LG Twins	69¢	$10	45h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL	99¢	$17	45h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Sp	BUY	11¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	29¢	$5	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	2d
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants	BUY LG Twins	65¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins	BUY Samsung Lions	58¢	$12	3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$36	4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	80¢	$10	4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$10	4d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	78¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.29 · official $90.70 (match) · 37 history records