Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf1bb…2506 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$124 (-2%) realized −$237 · open +$113
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$101
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$73
sports 19% −$74
politics 16% −$15
tech 8% +$2
crypto 4% −$18
world 0% +$28
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +35.3% +22.4% 44% 44% +12.2%
≤30d 19 +28.2% +16.0% 42% 42% +4.8%
≤90d 22 +16.3% +5.2% 41% 41% -8.9%
all 48 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 25% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 25% -11.2%
10% -18.5% 23% -19.7%
15% -26.4% 19% -27.4%
20% -33.6% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$21 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)48 / 59
History coverage181d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $0 $34 +$34 (+0%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+0%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 76¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-26%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$79 +154%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$59 +291%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $10 +$81 +786%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +138%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 24 $60 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 24 $100 −$5 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $10 −$6 -63%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 24 $177 −$50 -28%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $300 −$19 -6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $649 −$21 -3%
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 24 $136 −$136 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 23 $621 +$3 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 22 $511 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 20 $559 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 20 $200 −$2 -1%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 17 $325 −$7 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 17 $110 +$3 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $300 −$6 -2%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $805 −$8 -1%
Warriors vs. Hornets Jan 04 $100 +$33 +33%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $797 +$71 +9%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 29 $6 $0 -3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $100 +$100 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $17 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $20 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $25 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $31 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 46h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $10 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 11¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 46h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $10 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $28 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $9 4d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 4d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $20 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 72¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.19 · official $258.31 (match) · 151 history records