Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1c0…2fa8 crypto 2258 markets active 4d ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$364 (+3%) realized +$364 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%1226W / 1047L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$52
14 days−$40
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$264
sports 1% +$20
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -75.6% -77.9% 9% 9% -48.6%
≤30d 215 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 41% -20.7%
≤90d 1517 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 54% -8.4%
all 2273 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 54% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 54% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 54% -16.8%
15% -27.1% 53% -24.8%
20% -34.2% 49% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses1226 / 1047
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2273 / 2258
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2273 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$30 +589%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$11 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $50 4d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 15¢ $3 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 99¢ $7 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 69¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 65¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 32¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 14¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 23¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 28¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $6 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 4¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 56¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 5¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $17 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records