Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf1c2…6f18 other 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$3
politics 18% −$2
economics 6% $0
sports 4% +$11
world 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 +1.5% -8.2% 12% 8% -9.5%
all 102 +1.4% -8.2% 12% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×8.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage93d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $379 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $218 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $229 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $124 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $121 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $113 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $453 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $334 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $295 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $128 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 11m
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $62 58m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $53 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $17 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $17 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 27d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 28d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 28d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $120 33d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $120 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.72 · official $61.72 (match) · 279 history records