Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf1c2…a817 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$16 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$24
other 19% +$5
sports 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤30d 1 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤90d 3 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 67% -1.2%
all 6 -8.0% -16.8% 83% 67% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 67% -12.3%
10% -24.7% 0% -20.7%
15% -32.0% 0% -28.4%
20% -38.7% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$65 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage125d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $120 +$7 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 03 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $100 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 96¢ $100 1h
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $120 35d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 89¢ $110 78d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 90¢ $100 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? BUY No 65¢ $65 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 89¢ $50 124d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 90¢ $40 124d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 89¢ $60 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.60 · official $100.60 (match) · 15 history records