Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F1 0xf1c3…79e8 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$32 (-10%) realized −$30 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%6W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$7

14 days+$18

30 days+$18

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-21.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+70.3%	+54.1%	100%	100%	+54.1%
≤30d	4	+30.3%	+17.9%	75%	75%	+22.7%
≤90d	4	+30.3%	+17.9%	75%	75%	+22.7%
all	15	-12.9%	-21.2%	40%	40%	-23.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.2%	40%	-23.5%
10%	-28.7%	40%	-30.8%
15%	-35.6%	40%	-37.5%
20%	-41.9%	33%	-43.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late -27% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.71 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage

Net worth$98

Realized−$30

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses6 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage236d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$10	+$7	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$11	+109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$20	+$8	+42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 11	$9	−$9	-98%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?	Mar 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	Dec 29	$11	−$11	-100%
Clippers vs. Lakers	Nov 26	$10	−$9	-94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?	Nov 26	$10	−$4	-39%
Jazz vs. Warriors	Nov 25	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?	Nov 21	$10	+$21	+207%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?	Nov 18	$10	+$12	+125%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Nov 12	$10	−$7	-71%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 10	$30	+$18	+59%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)	Oct 30	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$31	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$9	11d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	11d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?	BUY No	37¢	$10	99d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	BUY No	24¢	$8	175d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	BUY No	21¢	$3	175d
Clippers vs. Lakers	SELL Clippers	2¢	$1	209d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?	SELL Yes	8¢	$6	209d
Clippers vs. Lakers	BUY Clippers	36¢	$10	209d
Jazz vs. Warriors	BUY Jazz	9¢	$10	210d
Jazz vs. Warriors	BUY Jazz	28¢	$30	210d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	210d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?	BUY Yes	33¢	$10	216d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?	SELL Yes	99¢	$22	217d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	217d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	SELL No	4¢	$3	223d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	BUY No	14¢	$10	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	63¢	$30	226d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	BUY Anyones Legend	53¢	$10	235d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)	BUY G2 Esports	32¢	$10	236d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.33 · official $98.33 (match) · 31 history records