Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F1 0xf1c4…d965 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$338 (+9%) realized +$503 · open −$165

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%6W / 8L

Drawdown65%max

Avg bet$157per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$1,235now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$190

7 days+$1,100

14 days+$1,100

30 days+$1,100

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+18.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+41.0%	+27.6%	46%	46%	+63.4%
≤30d	13	+41.0%	+27.6%	46%	46%	+63.4%
≤90d	14	+30.9%	+18.5%	43%	43%	+19.1%
all	14	+30.9%	+18.5%	43%	43%	+19.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.5%	43%	+19.1%
10%	+7.1%	43%	+7.7%
15%	-3.2%	43%	-2.7%
20%	-12.7%	43%	-12.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +31% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +54% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$262 vs −$122 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage

Net worth$1,235

Realized+$503

Unrealized−$165

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses6 / 8

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 24

History coverage47d

Avg bet$157

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown65%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$1,250	$1,086	−$164 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$75	$81	+$6 (+8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-9%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$41	−$40	-97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$103	−$100	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$98	+$208	+214%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$51	+$175	+342%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$77	−$75	-98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$72	−$70	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$102	+$114	+112%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$96	−$94	-98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$85	+$192	+226%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$99	+$186	+188%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Jun 15	$462	+$693	+150%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	May 04	$518	−$507	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	10¢	$26	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a	BUY	26¢	$77	6h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	7h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$26	10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end	BUY	17¢	$51	35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland win	BUY	22¢	$51	35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Czechia win on	BUY	16¢	$51	46h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$77	46h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	46h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$250	46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	30¢	$47	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	82¢	$227	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$77	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	32¢	$51	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$72	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	93¢	$216	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	13¢	$41	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$46	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$50	3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-	BUY	13¢	$77	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$85	4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$99	4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$500	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND	BUY	38¢	$160	4d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL Yes	88¢	$1,155	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,234.54 · official $1,234.54 (match) · 87 history records