Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1c5…6fe8 world 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 39L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$4
other 20% +$1
politics 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 18% 9% -9.5%
≤30d 19 +3.7% -6.2% 26% 16% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +3.7% -6.2% 26% 16% -9.1%
all 58 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -9.1%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage460d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $21 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $45 −$1 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $130 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $75 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $45 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $62 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $24 +$3 +14%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mirra Andreeva win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 08 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $41 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $44 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $45 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.29 · official $41.12 (match) · 202 history records