Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1c6…5177 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$108 (-26%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$51
sports 10% −$13
crypto 4% +$10
politics 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
≤30d 16 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
≤90d 16 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
all 16 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% -22.9%
10% -21.5% 44% -30.3%
15% -29.1% 31% -37.0%
20% -36.0% 19% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage418d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $33 +$44 +132%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 +$20 +158%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $13 $0 -1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $44 −$15 -34%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$26 -51%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $36 +$15 +41%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +70%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$5 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $78 23m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $33 45m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $33 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $13 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $16 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $16 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $51 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $36 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 34h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $54 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $16 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records