Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf1c8…3ebd weather 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%123W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$8
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$30
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 91% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 73 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 119 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 126 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.96 per $1 lost it wins $16.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$565
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses123 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage120d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $565 $565 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $397 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $175 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $522 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $468 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $468 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $559 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $528 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $352 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $370 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $461 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $465 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $352 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 3? Jun 04 $372 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $522 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $501 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $565 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $564 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $564 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $173 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $175 46h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $397 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $522 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $42 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $77 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $561 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $559 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $468 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $468 8d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $96 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $559 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $557 9d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $528 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $352 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $199 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $547 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.23 · official $565.23 (match) · 270 history records