Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1cb…cedb politics 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$13
politics 34% −$13
sports 13% +$15
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 137 -1.1% -10.6% 5% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×13.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage129d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $246 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $182 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $233 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $214 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $394 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $227 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $210 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $195 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 06 $209 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $213 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $161 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 19 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $382 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 4h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $35 16d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $35 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $21 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 19d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 20d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 22d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 24d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 26d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 28d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 29d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 29d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $214 29d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $214 29d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $199 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 400 history records