Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1d0…e7d8 politics 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,029 (-2%) realized −$2,030 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$928per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,059
politics 38% −$59
sports 11% −$908
culture 2% −$3
economics 2% −$3
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% +$2
world 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -1.7% -11.1% 7% 0% -10.8%
all 135 -3.6% -12.8% 21% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 8% -11.0%
10% -21.1% 8% -19.5%
15% -28.7% 7% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,191) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$945
Realized−$2,030
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage149d
Avg bet$928
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $676 $677 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $268 $268 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $274 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,440 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $5,288 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,191 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,277 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,278 −$5 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $546 +$1 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $799 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,035 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $4,106 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,091 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 19 $608 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 04 $348 +$1 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $685 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $399 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? Apr 21 $644 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,363 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,931 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 19h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 23h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $224 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $224 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $274 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $274 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $240 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $240 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $408 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $409 10d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $676 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,188 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,189 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,233 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,234 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,125 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,104 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,106 16d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 16d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,143 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,189 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,191 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,254 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,256 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $945.23 · official $945.23 (match) · 409 history records