Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:15:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1d4…7033 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -18.0% -25.8% 67% 45% -25.0%
≤30d 33 -18.0% -25.8% 67% 45% -25.0%
≤90d 33 -18.0% -25.8% 67% 45% -25.0%
all 33 -18.0% -25.8% 67% 45% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 45% -25.0%
10% -32.9% 15% -32.2%
15% -39.4% 3% -38.7%
20% -45.4% 0% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage5d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $103 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records