Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1d5…ee5c other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$117 (-3%) realized −$68 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$266
14 days−$253
30 days−$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$280
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -39.8% -45.5% 29% 14% -47.6%
≤30d 31 -2.3% -11.6% 23% 19% -28.6%
≤90d 35 +9.7% -0.8% 26% 23% -14.8%
all 35 +9.7% -0.8% 26% 23% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 23% -14.8%
10% -10.2% 23% -22.9%
15% -18.9% 20% -30.4%
20% -26.9% 14% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$79 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage35d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $185 −$98 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $36 +$16 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $122 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $77 −$18 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $40 −$31 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $121 −$89 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $188 −$187 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $161 +$153 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $11 −$4 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $488 −$338 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $89 +$718 +807%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $28 −$12 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $27 +$10 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $95 −$35 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $188 −$126 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $40 +$156 +390%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? May 22 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $407 −$348 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $289 −$12 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $186 −$60 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $57 −$23 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $284 −$112 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $95 +$121 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $142 −$100 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $107 +$622 +584%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $77 −$77 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $72 +$18 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 17m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 39m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $62 41m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 50m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $47 59m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $83 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $4 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $36 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $102 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $52 35h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $126 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $60 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.84 · official $11.84 (match) · 542 history records