Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1dc…a2c1 world 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$8
other 23% $0
sports 18% $0
politics 6% −$3
culture 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 25% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 19 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 19 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 0% -10.8%
all 44 -1.1% -10.5% 39% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage292d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $50 −$10 -20%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $37 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $26 −$2 -8%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 16 $23 $0 +1%
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? Sep 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 15 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be bet Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Sep 08 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $27 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $30 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $21 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $2 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $29 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $30 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $29 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $29 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $30 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $30 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $16 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $27 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records