Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1e1…c152 weather 285 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,921 (+76%) realized +$13,323 · open +$1,598
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%87W / 184L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day81.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$486
7 days+$1,135
14 days+$1,729
30 days+$7,711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$10,823
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +42.8% +29.2% 45% 40% +38.6%
≤30d 260 -9.2% -17.9% 30% 27% +31.7%
≤90d 271 -3.1% -12.3% 32% 28% +35.5%
all 271 -3.1% -12.3% 32% 28% +35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 28% +35.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 25% +22.5%
15% -28.4% 22% +10.7%
20% -35.4% 20% -0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +48% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$17 · ×8.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,917
Realized+$13,323
Unrealized+$1,598
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses87 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)271 / 285
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$69
Trades / day81.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 2¢ 100¢ $25 $996 +$971 (+3903%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $54 $347 +$293 (+546%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 22¢ 100¢ $50 $228 +$178 (+355%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 69¢ 98¢ $129 $184 +$55 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Yes 3¢ 100¢ $2 $71 +$69 (+3470%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $44 $70 +$26 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 60¢ 100¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 16¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $108 +$35 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $16 −$15 -90%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $35 +$40 +116%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $28 +$287 +1016%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $8 +$124 +1629%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $216 +$276 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$14 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 −$40 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $249 +$239 +96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 −$6 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $18 −$10 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $109 +$51 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$174 +190%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 12 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $474 +$111 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $0 $0 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $9 −$7 -75%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $18 +$11 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $344 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $328 −$321 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $15 −$10 -66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $103 +$168 +164%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $44 +$85 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $33 +$14 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $47 +$18 +40%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $128 −$127 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $121 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $53 46m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $144 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 16¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 16¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 34¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 19¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 15¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,916.62 · official $1,916.92 (match) · 3500 history records