Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1e3…41c6 sports 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%31W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$3
politics 25% −$4
other 22% −$2
crypto 8% −$3
economics 6% −$1
culture 4% −$1
finance 3% +$3
world 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 51 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 190 -0.6% -10.1% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses31 / 159
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage171d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $186 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $367 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $346 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $157 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $74 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 04 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $126 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Apr 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 02 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $147 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $39 $0 -1%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Mar 29 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $103 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 28 $41 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 12d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 12d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $36 25d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $36 25d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $38 38d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $38 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $37 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $37 76d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 76d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $35 76d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $43 76d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 94¢ $42 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $46 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $46 76d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $46 76d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $46 77d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $47 77d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $47 77d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 94¢ $39 77d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 94¢ $39 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $42 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $42 77d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $39 77d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $39 78d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 78d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 78d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 78d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 78d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $48 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.04 · official $40.04 (match) · 668 history records