Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F1 0xf1e7…cdc7 crypto 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14,321 (+41%) realized +$14,298 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%68W / 92L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$31
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$11,994
crypto 36% +$2,326
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$15
other 1% +$20
tech 0% −$11
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +7.9% -2.3% 43% 43% -0.5%
≤90d 44 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 25% -13.0%
all 160 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 40% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 40% +28.0%
10% -18.7% 39% +15.8%
15% -26.5% 38% +4.6%
20% -33.7% 38% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$35 · ×7.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized+$14,298
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses68 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage234d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $621 $620 −$0 (-0%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 48¢ 40¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 02 $110 −$11 -10%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 01 $41 −$3 -7%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 01 $530 −$17 -3%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs TLN Pirates (+2.5) May 28 $125 +$75 +60%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $158 +$102 +65%
Map Handicap: SHISHKA (-1.5) vs Endless Journey (+1.5) May 21 $104 +$55 +52%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 08 $23 −$1 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $49 −$5 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? May 07 $47 −$2 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 07 $158 −$4 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 07 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? May 07 $15 +$3 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 07 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 07 $6 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 07 $42 −$3 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 07 $67 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $209 −$206 -98%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs Team Solid (BO3) - Circuito Desafiante Pla Apr 27 $110 $0 -0%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Apr 27 $140 −$10 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 26 $100 $0 -0%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qua Apr 22 $210 −$10 -5%
Savannah: Liam Draxl vs Kilian Feldbausch Apr 22 $560 −$20 -4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $4 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $265 −$9 -3%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Apr 22 $240 −$5 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Apr 21 $531 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Apr 21 $20 −$11 -54%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 21 $20 −$9 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$10 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5) Apr 07 $10 +$10 +100%
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5 Apr 07 $10 +$10 +100%
Spread: Clippers (-3.5) Apr 07 $10 +$10 +92%
Spread: Rockets (-1.5) Apr 07 $15 +$15 +100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 25 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$10 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $29 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $828 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 50¢ $99 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 55¢ $110 13d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 41¢ $38 13d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 44¢ $41 13d
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris SELL Lloyd Harris 52¢ $513 13d
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris BUY Lloyd Harris 53¢ $216 13d
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris BUY Lloyd Harris 53¢ $314 13d
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs TLN Pirates (+2.5) BUY TLN Pirates 62¢ $125 17d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Invictus Gaming 85¢ $85 22d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 60¢ $158 24d
Map Handicap: SHISHKA (-1.5) vs Endless Journey (+1.5) BUY Endless Journey 65¢ $104 31d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes 42¢ $22 38d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? SELL Down 44¢ $9 38d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY Yes 43¢ $23 38d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? SELL Down 51¢ $15 38d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? BUY Down 55¢ $28 38d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? SELL No 53¢ $26 38d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? BUY No 54¢ $27 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 37¢ $70 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 37¢ $4 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 39¢ $78 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? SELL No 14¢ $3 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY No 16¢ $3 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 41¢ $80 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 40¢ $80 38d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL No 33¢ $6 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.76 · official $644.76 (match) · 551 history records