Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1e8…1386 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$787 (-22%) realized −$787 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$490
7 days−$881
14 days−$881
30 days−$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$440
sports 33% −$350
crypto 10% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 41% -36.4%
≤30d 22 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 41% -36.4%
≤90d 22 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 41% -36.4%
all 22 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 41% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 41% -36.4%
10% -16.4% 32% -42.5%
15% -24.5% 27% -48.1%
20% -31.9% 23% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$130 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$787
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $43 +$15 +35%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $99 −$56 -56%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $899 −$339 -38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $128 −$127 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $112 +$16 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $109 +$4 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$38 +54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $165 −$164 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $122 +$44 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $113 +$9 +8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $316 −$204 -65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $158 +$159 +101%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $124 +$184 +149%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$44 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$10 +14%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 −$35 -34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $267 −$262 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $366 −$91 -25%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $58 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $43 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $43 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $99 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $43 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $542 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $540 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $357 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $128 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $112 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $113 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $109 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $109 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $165 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $122 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $122 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $113 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $112 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $316 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $158 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $308 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $124 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $80 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $71 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 6d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $68 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records