Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1ea…eb9d sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%4W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$7
politics 35% −$3
other 13% −$2
crypto 5% −$1
culture 5% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -18.5% -26.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -16.3% -24.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 46 -8.6% -17.3% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses4 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage223d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 100¢ $102 $111 +$9 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $103 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $211 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $2 $0 -18%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $1 $0 -25%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $107 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $215 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $3 $0 -17%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 22 $111 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 11 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $103 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 12d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 19d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 26d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $105 35d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $106 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? BUY No 100¢ $104 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 120d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $104 120d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 125d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 139d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 142d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 143d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.94 · official $110.94 (match) · 223 history records