Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf1eb…7afe
sports · 230 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$4,195 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,029 · open −$163
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$117
Realized−$3,029
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses117 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions4
Markets (closed)226 / 230
History coverage632d
Avg bet$700
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 4 History 226 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes 47¢ 16¢ $151 $53 −$98 (-65%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 47¢ 20¢ $112 $46 −$66 (-59%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 42¢ 48¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 35¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Yes 51¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 20¢ $236 $0 −$236 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 27¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Cavaliers 50¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $440 $0 −$440 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves Wolves 10¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Yes 22¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 34¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Cavaliers 36¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by May 15? No 30¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? No 81¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $234 −$230 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 07 $211 +$51 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 07 $277 −$81 -29%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $242 −$236 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $132 −$130 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $164 +$708 +431%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $640 −$445 -69%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? May 04 $82 −$81 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 03 $934 −$92 -10%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $155 +$245 +158%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $101 −$99 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $113 +$342 +304%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $291 +$609 +209%
Will the next elected US president be a woman? Apr 30 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 30 $112 +$45 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 30 $1,135 −$685 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 30 $914 −$487 -53%
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $325 +$211 +65%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $65 +$34 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $100 +$143 +144%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 26 $50 +$45 +90%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $100 +$83 +83%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $80 +$64 +80%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $128 −$128 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 22 $127 −$120 -94%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $69 +$18 +26%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 21 $107 −$10 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 21 $34 +$10 +30%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $81 +$200 +246%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $98 +$25 +25%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 20 $286 +$28 +10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $716 +$238 +33%
Warriors vs. Thunder Apr 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Minnesota vs. Ohio State Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Hawks Apr 11 $265 −$145 -55%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota Apr 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Apr 11 $92 −$92 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Apr 11 $125 −$125 -100%
Falcons vs. 49ers Apr 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Apr 11 $132 −$132 -100%
Emmett vs. Zalal Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 27% +$1,358
crypto 26% −$3,244
sports 17% −$37
other 14% −$647
tech 7% +$123
culture 7% +$2
world 2% −$594
finance 1% −$45
economics 0% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 42¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $507 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 21¢ $489 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 48¢ $130 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $2,359 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $498 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $197 13d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 34¢ $26 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 34¢ $208 34d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Wolves 25¢ $252 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL Yes 22¢ $196 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 13¢ $13 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 18¢ $111 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $118 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 25¢ $31 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY Yes 28¢ $277 38d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $102 38d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $709 38d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Timberwolves 56¢ $162 38d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $57 38d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $38 38d
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? BUY No 81¢ $82 38d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $66 39d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $54 39d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $37 39d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 16¢ $164 39d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $12 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 76 -36.3% -42.3% 28% 25% -36.8%
all 226 -2.3% -11.6% 52% 35% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 35% -11.3%
10% -20.1% 27% -19.7%
15% -27.8% 21% -27.5%
20% -34.9% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.64 · official $116.64 (match) · 1997 history records