Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1ec…73d8 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +24.2% +12.4% 47% 21% -16.5%
≤30d 19 +24.2% +12.4% 47% 21% -16.5%
≤90d 19 +24.2% +12.4% 47% 21% -16.5%
all 19 +24.2% +12.4% 47% 21% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.4% 21% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 21% -24.5%
15% -8.2% 11% -31.8%
20% -17.2% 11% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$9 +438%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$34 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records