Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F1 0xf1ef…e32c crypto 59 markets active 13h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$267 (+16%) realized +$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 41L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$154
other 9% +$25
sports 8% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +8.2% -2.1% 31% 29% +4.1%
≤30d 59 +8.2% -2.1% 31% 29% +4.1%
≤90d 59 +8.2% -2.1% 31% 29% +4.1%
all 59 +8.2% -2.1% 31% 29% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 29% +4.1%
10% -11.5% 29% -5.9%
15% -20.0% 27% -15.0%
20% -27.9% 25% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$18 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 41
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage5d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$101 +982%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $109 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$62 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $218 +$195 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$29 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $80 +$91 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$106 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$69 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$78 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$36 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$83 +325%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$23 +70%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$27 +250%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$10 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$8 +650%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $91 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $109 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $218 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $155 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $16 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $14 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $80 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $35 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $164 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $59 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records